Crypto Risk/Reward Calculator

Compare what a trade risks with what it could make, and see how often you need to win to break even, before and after India's tax on crypto.

Your trade

Price per unit you get in at.

Where you get out at a loss.

Where you take your profit.

Details, optional

Units traded. Empty shows one unit.

Charged on the way in and out.

Share of trades you expect to win.

India's flat rate on a winning trade.

Your risk and reward

Fill in your trade and choose Calculate Ratio. Your figures appear here.

Risk

₹0.00

What you lose if the stop-loss is hit

Reward

₹0.00

What you make if the target is reached

Break-Even Win Rate

0%

Share of trades to win, before tax

Win Rate After Tax

0%

Share of trades to win once wins are taxed

Expected Result per Trade

–

Enter a win rate to see this

Risk to Reward

–

Reward ÷ risk, shown as 1 to that number

A plan, not a promise. A stop-loss can fill at a worse price in a fast market. Tax is worked out the way India taxes crypto, on the gap between entry and target with no deduction for fees, and losses are not set off. To decide how many units to trade, use the Crypto Position Size Calculator.

How it is calculated

Risk is what you lose if the stop-loss is hit. Reward is what you make if the target is reached.

  • Risk = the gap between your entry and your stop-loss, plus the fee on the way in and on the way out
  • Reward = the gap between your entry and your target, less the same fees
  • Risk to reward = 1 : reward ÷ risk
  • Break-even win rate = risk ÷ (risk + reward)
  • Break-even win rate after tax = risk ÷ (risk + reward − tax). Tax is the tax rate × the gap between entry and target, and losses are not set off
  • Expected result = win rate × (reward − tax) − (1 − win rate) × risk

Frequently asked questions

Short answers on risk to reward and on how tax changes the picture in India.

It compares what you stand to lose on a trade with what you stand to make. A ratio of 1 : 3 means that for every rupee you risk, the trade pays three if it reaches your target.

Risk is the gap between your entry and your stop-loss. Reward is the gap between your entry and your target. Take an entry at ₹25,00,000, a stop-loss at ₹23,75,000 and a target at ₹28,75,000. You risk ₹1,25,000 per unit to make ₹3,75,000, a risk to reward of 1 : 3. Fees, if you enter them, make the risk larger and the reward smaller.

It is the share of trades you need to win to come out level. At 1 : 3 you break even by winning 25% of trades like it, because one win of three pays for three losses of one. The better the ratio, the fewer trades you need to win.

In India each winning crypto trade is taxed at 30%, plus cess, and a loss on one trade cannot be set off against a profit on another. So wins shrink and losses stay the same size. In the example above the tax on a win is ₹1,12,500 per unit, which leaves ₹2,62,500, and the break-even win rate rises from 25% to 32.26%.

There is no single answer, because it depends on how often you win. A ratio of 1 : 2 or better is a common rule of thumb, but a high ratio usually means a target that is further away and reached less often. A trade is only worth taking if your win rate is above the break-even win rate.

It is optional. Enter the share of trades you expect to win to see the expected result per trade, after fees and tax. It is your own estimate, and past results do not guarantee future ones. To decide how many units to trade, use the Crypto Position Size Calculator.

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